Thursday, March 26, 2009

The Nano will lead to suicides

Not heard of farmers' suicide in India and Australia? I will tell.

Farmers are known to be a sturdy lot, as sturdy as the weed they throw out while growing crops. But farming is a very risk-prone activity, especially if you are growing a tender crop in rain-fed conditions. Still they manage to weather the weather and can smile. They are capable of cracking the nastiest jokes when not busy in the field, even though the crop might be not that good. Farmers are also a god fearing lot. Now, who will expect such a lot to commit suicide? What happens in Australia, I don't know, but in rainfed, sustenance farming areas, farmers seldom commit suicide.

On the other hand, suicides among farmers are very prevalent in areas where they grow crops with expectations of windfall profits, for example after finding that a new GM crop yields thrice the traditional crop. If they did that within their risk-taking capacity, no great harm would be done even if their crops fail, but they throw the traditional sense to the wind. They take credit to run their risky enterprise, they take credit which they will find difficult to repay even in the normal crop, they take credit to gamble, worse: they take credit to fulfil their consumption need in the hope that a bumper crop and rising prices would give them a goldmine. When that does not happen, they get desperate, some take further loans, some sell the land, some commit suicide.

Come Nano, the dream car for the lower middle class Indian, and suicides will shift to the urban India. For the reasons that I gave above for farmers' suicides. Banks and auto financers, the car company, the media all are creating a scenario in which the lower middle class urbanite [LMCU] will find it not worth living if he couldn't flaunt a Nano when taking his children to the relatives during rakhi and diwali, couldn't gift a Nano in dowry to his sister/daughter, couldn't receive a Nano for himself/ his son in dowry, etc etc. Children will put pressure on parents to buy a Nano. He will withdraw his PF, take loan, bear that much more burden on running the car, but have a Nano, the dream car. He will not mind taking graft, doing evening/ part time job, cutting expenditure on more essential items. While the wife [housewife mostly] and children drool, he will also willy-nilly enjoy the car. Sometimes he will enjoy the car more than all put together. Then either it becomes part of his life-style that he cannot sustain or it remains parked in front of his house, earning him insurance and depreciation dues and interest on loan.

[Let us not discuss the fights he will have with neighbours on parking and other issues, the sleepless nights he will have fearing theft of the car parked away from his narrow lane and the congestion and environmental problems that the car will create.]

Then comes the reality check. Loan becoming heavy, instalments unpaid, interest looming over head, Nano sucking petrol and getting scrathes and dent on the bumper [the dreamy LMCU will not have factored other expenditures, even if he has calculated the fuel cost of the highly fuel-efficient Nano], etc etc. and then comes the awaited SUICIDE!

Don't blame me if not many LMCU commit suicide. I am not an astrologer. But the ones who foresaw farmers' suicides in the wake of Bt Cotton were also not astrologers.

Long live Nano. Long live al Nino.

The flood called recession needs a flood-control solution

We are hearing of a large number of stimulus packages being put forth by the big economies, but all are losing some important issues.

The economic downturn has come like a massive flood which has breached embankments and flooded the entire area around a river. Handle it like that.

  • First, let there be a high level of coordination among as many countries as possible. You cannot insulate one house against the flood; you must have a wide-area approach. No protectionism among nations and among provinces within federations.
  • Put all efforts in concert; don’t save for future. First be convinced about the right approach [pumping money for spending/ stimulating core sectors/ etc], and once you have found one, go whole-hog. In a flood, putting a few sand bags here and there or making an embankment here and one there results in the river washing them all.
  • Let there be more and more resources from safe areas. Find which areas are safe and will not submerge when soil is taken out of them to plug the leak. Transfer resources from these sectors. Also transfer resources locked in black money.
  • Let the breach be diverted to wasteland. In case of flood, if the waters are flooding crops and habitations and the breach in the river cannot be plugged, it is prudent to cut the other embankment of the river which will divert waters to the wasteland. So, pay attention to ways by which the tide of recession can be diverted to harmful sectors such as drug trade, speculation, gambling, etc. 
  • In wide-spread floods, it is advisable to find some unaffected highland, and start flood-control, rescue and rehabilitation work from there. Find such anchoring sectors and recession-proof them and their related sectors, rather than trying to support the sectors deep into flood/recession.